Business & MetaBM-08Live · locks Nov 19, 2026, 00:00 UTC

First-24-hours revenue bucket

Gross revenue in the first 24 hours, per Take-Two/official figures.

Staking locks Nov 19, 2026, 00:00 UTC

The pool

100 VC$ · 100 weighted · 1 forecaster

Outcomestakedshare
< $500M0 VC$no stake yet
$500M–$1B0 VC$no stake yet
$1B–$2B100 VC$only side
$2B+0 VC$no stake yet

No opposing stake yet — all 100 VC$ sits on $1B–$2B. That’s thin one-sided liquidity, not a settled outcome; the split only becomes real odds once someone takes the other side.

Live — updated just now

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VC$

Recent action

@catalyst backed $1B–$2B100 VC$40d ago

The resolution contract

Fixed when the question was written — what happens is checked against this, not against vibes. Ambiguous? It resolves N/A and everyone is refunded.

Resolution criteria: Bucket by the first-24-hours gross-revenue figure taken from the highest-priority source that publishes one by the deadline (priority order below). (Distinct from BM-05's first-week *units* and BM-09's time-to-$1B.)
Source of truth: In strict priority order — (1) a Take-Two/Rockstar official figure (press release, earnings call, or SEC filing); else (2) Take-Two's quarterly earnings report covering the launch quarter; else (3) the single most authoritative named market-research estimate (Circana/NPD, Ampere, or an equivalent named tracker), never a blend of anonymous blog estimates. Use the first tier that publishes a first-24-hours *gross-revenue* figure.
Resolves: On the first qualifying figure, or 2027-02-28 (UTC) at the latest (covers Take-Two's post-launch quarterly report; ~14 weeks after launch).
N/A (refund) if: No source above publishes a first-24-hours *gross-revenue* figure by 2027-02-28. A unit-count or lifetime-to-date figure with no 24-hour revenue number does not resolve this (→ N/A), and anonymous/unattributed estimates never count.
Resolution deadline: Feb 28, 2027

How payouts work

Parimutuel: all stakes pool together. When the question resolves, winners get their stake back plus a share of the losers’ points, proportional to stake weight. No house, no odds-setting — the crowd IS the odds.