The resolution contract
Fixed when the question was written — what happens is checked against this, not against vibes. Ambiguous? It resolves N/A and everyone is refunded.
- Resolution criteria
- Bucket by the first-week worldwide unit-sales figure taken from the highest-priority source that publishes one by the deadline (priority order below). (Distinct from BM-08's 24-hour *revenue* and BM-09's time-to-$1B.)
- Source of truth
- In strict priority order — (1) a Take-Two/Rockstar official figure (press release, earnings call, or SEC filing); else (2) Take-Two's quarterly earnings report covering the launch quarter; else (3) the single most authoritative named market-research estimate (Circana/NPD, Ampere, or an equivalent named tracker), never a blend of anonymous blog estimates. Use the first tier that publishes a first-week worldwide *unit* figure.
- Resolves
- On the first qualifying figure, or 2027-02-28 (UTC) at the latest (covers Take-Two's post-launch quarterly report; ~14 weeks after launch).
- N/A (refund) if
- No source above publishes a first-week worldwide *unit* figure by 2027-02-28. A revenue-only or lifetime-to-date figure with no first-week unit count does not resolve this (→ N/A), and anonymous/unattributed estimates never count.
- Resolution deadline
- Nov 26, 2026
How payouts work
Parimutuel: all stakes pool together. When the question resolves, winners get their stake back plus a share of the losers’ points, proportional to stake weight. No house, no odds-setting — the crowd IS the odds.